Sunday, December 31, 2006

calling all aliens


In April 2006, Oak Ridge Observatory at Harvard, Massachusetts, unveiled the first telescope that will be used exclusively for the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence.
In a display of breathtaking optimism,

Horowitz’s previous searches have produced nothing definitive, although he said there have been some “heart-stoppingly close calls.”

However, he said that if one assumes the existence of extraterrestrial life, even a negative result can provide useful insight, narrowing down the list of possible ways aliens might be communicating with us.

I am as enthusiastic as anyone about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life. However, there seems to be a logical fallacy in the reasoning here.
First and foremost, there is no room for falsification. The concept of falsification rests on Karl Popper's idea that scientific theories must be able to be proven wrong, at least in principle. If you've got a theory that says "dolphins cannot survive for long on land," then if you see a dolphin strolling in the local park, your theory has been proven false. It's been falsified.
Now, I know that philosophers have picked over the bones of Popper's ideas until they are satisfied that there's no meat left at all. However, the fact is that most practicing scientists like the idea of falsification, and most scientific dialogs assume it.
So where does that leave the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence? If you believe that there are intelligent life forms out there trying to communicate with you, doesn't that mean that you expect to find some communication? And if you then spend lots of money and build a telescope especially for the task, doesn't that mean that you are making some kind of especially strong prediction?
Maybe there are intelligent alien life-forms out there in the stars, beeping away at us like lovelorn Romeos singing under a window, hoping that we will answer the call. Maybe not. There are reasons to believe that it could be true, but it is an empirical question, and as such, is subject to the rules of debate that apply across the sciences.
If you don't find anything, it might be because there is nothing to find.

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